Iran war may cool down as officials say

President Donald Trump said the US is close to signing a deal with Iran to end the war, with a memorandum of understanding to be signed in the coming days.

But some of the major objectives that Trump had set for the conflict remain unfulfilled. And while the Trump administration has said its objectives are clear and immutable, the list has expanded and changed as the president and his administration have talked about the war that began on Feb. 28.

At all times, conflict has damaged the global economy, tested alliances and raised unanswered questions about conflict planning, its justification, and its outcome.

By most accounts, the US and Israeli attacks have significantly reduced Iran’s military capabilities and killed several senior leaders. But those tactical successes haven’t necessarily achieved all of the president’s strategic goals, even though the administration said Friday it was meeting the goals it set.

Here’s a look at the objectives set out by Trump at various points since the start of the war and how we know where they stand: 1. Destroy Iran’s missile capability One of the major objectives set by the administration was to “destroy their missiles and dismantle their missile industry.” Trump said in late March that Iran’s missiles were “mostly destroyed” and that 90 percent of their missiles and launchers had been destroyed.

By mid-May, this changed to a more conservative estimate, with the President saying that 82 percent of Iran’s missiles were destroyed.

The top US military commander in Middle East, Admiral Brad Cooper, told lawmakers in mid-May that Iran has a “small to very moderate capability” to continue attacks in the region.

Iran recently proved this week that it still has the capability to launch missiles when it attacked three of America’s Gulf allies.

2. Destroy Iran’s defense industrial base At the beginning of the war, the President and his administration sometimes listed it as a standalone objective. Other times, it’s crossed off their list.

US Central Command has said its targets for attacks in Iran include weapons production and missile and drone manufacturing facilities.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers in early June that there was “massive destruction” of Iran’s defense industrial base and “80 to 90 percent damage. It will take them years to rebuild it.” Trump told NBC’s “Meet the Press” in an interview broadcast Sunday: “Most of the drone factories have been destroyed, most of the launching pads have been destroyed and most of the missile manufacturing areas have been destroyed. But they still have the capability.” 3. Destroy Iran’s navy and air force The US and Israel immediately established air superiority in the skies over Iran, where they flew largely unchallenged.

Rubio told lawmakers that Iran still has drone capabilities, but lacks the ability to use swarms of drones to attack targets, as it did at the beginning of the war.

He also said Iran does not have a navy but has small ships armed with machine guns that harass ships and sometimes drop mines into the water.

Iran has still shown its ability to launch attacks in the region, such as a deadly June 3 attack by drones and missiles on Kuwait that forced the brief closure of its main airport. The US and Bahrain also said they intercepted missiles and drones fired by Iran at the Gulf kingdom.

And on Tuesday, Trump blamed Tehran for the downing of a US military helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz after it collided with an Iranian drone.

4. End Iran’s nuclear program forever Trump made a notable change from last year after announcing in June that the US had “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear program, only for his aides to warn that Iran was just weeks away from a bomb to justify current operations.

One of the most pressing questions is what to do with the approximately 970 pounds of enriched uranium in Tehran’s possession that could potentially be used as a weapon. The material is believed to be buried beneath three nuclear sites bombed by the US and Israel last year. Trump said in a May 29 social media post that it would be recovered and destroyed by the US “in close coordination and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency.” Iran has not said whether it will consent or not. Experts say seizing it without Iran’s permission would be a dangerous mission and would require the deployment of large numbers of US troops in the country.

Trump told reporters on Thursday that a deal had been reached “in concept” on uranium, but he did not provide details and Iran had not yet ratified it.

A senior administration official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity to provide details of the talks on Friday, said Iran has agreed that the uranium will be dismantled and removed, but details of what that looks like have not yet been revealed.

5. Protect America’s West Asian allies In a social media post in March, Trump added a fifth objective for the US: “To defend, at the highest level, our West Asian allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.” The US has deployed thousands of troops to its bases and other installations in the region, but Trump has been unclear about how far he would be willing to go to protect his West Asian allies from threats.

As Trump said the US was close to a deal with Iran in recent weeks, he said any deal must somehow bind several Gulf allies to join the Abraham Accords, Trump’s first-term accord that sought to normalize relations with Israel. But this seems extremely unlikely as Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip have created a major disconnect with the Gulf Arab states and the wider Muslim world.

As the US and Iran traded blows at each other this week, Tehran’s targets included attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, prompting the US to respond with a new round of attacks.

The Trump administration has begun to explore whether to let Gulf allies use Iran’s frozen assets to recoup war losses, but officials have not said whether they are moving forward with that plan.

The senior administration official said Friday the memorandum of understanding would guarantee long-term peace in the region, but he did not provide details about what it would look like or how it would be achieved.

6. Reopen the Strait of Hormuz Keeping shipping traffic through the vital waterway was not one of the reasons for starting the war, but after Iran took advantage of its ability to effectively shut down traffic through the strait, it has become a major problem to deal with in the conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint for 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas and its effective closure since the war has driven up global energy prices along with the cost of other commodities. Iran allowed ships deemed friendly to pass for a substantial fee.

Trump has said that the proposed deal with Iran would include reopening the strait and ending the US blockade of Tehran’s ports.

7. Stop support for Iranian proxy groups In March, Trump and his administration repeatedly included weakening Iran’s proxy terror networks as a key goal of the operation.

As time passed, administration officials offered fewer updates about this objective, which the President described as ensuring that “the region’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces” and “ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside its borders.” Initially, the US attacked Iranian-aligned militia groups in Iraq. But the biggest question is Israel’s deepening war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Iran supports. Iran has insisted that fighting in Lebanon must stop under any deal with the US, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears intent on meeting his goal of destroying the terrorist group.

Israel said on Thursday that it was not a party to the agreement the US had made with Iran.

The administration official said Friday that the US is confident the memorandum of understanding will include both Hezbollah and Israel in broad regional peace terms. If the Iranians maintained their position on sanctioning Hezbollah, the Israelis would not feel the need to respond, the official said.