Why are scientists raising complaints?

China is expected to build what is expected to be the world’s largest hydropower project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet, construction of which has raised new geological security concerns. This river enters Arunachal Pradesh as Siang and becomes Brahmaputra in Assam.

According to a report South China Morning PostChinese geologists have identified an active fault line directly beneath the mega-dam project, warning that it could pose a risk to the long-term stability of the infrastructure.

What geological concerns have Chinese scientists expressed?

The findings were published last month in the Chinese-language journal Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology, which is run under the China Geological Survey.

Researchers said fractures in the Earth’s crust in the eastern Himalayan region could significantly impact the integrity of the infrastructure of a large-scale hydropower project. According to the study, the Pazen Fault, which has been highly active since the Pleistocene (also known as the Ice Age), can significantly impact the structural stability and construction of surrounding infrastructure, including dams, roads, bridges, tunnels and the reservoir area.

The researchers found that parts of the reservoir area contained loosely structured and weakly bound material. Prolonged saturation after filling the reservoir, combined with fault movement or earthquakes, can destabilize the slopes on both sides of the reservoir.

They recommended strengthening slope-stabilization measures, retaining structures, and geological monitoring to reduce these risks.

The findings contradict Beijing’s long-standing claim that the project has been designed according to the highest safety standards and will help reduce disaster risks in the region.

Why does this project raise concerns for India?

The billion-dollar project is located close to the Indian border in Arunachal Pradesh, raising both geological and water security concerns.

The dam is being built on the Yarlung Tsangpo, which is the name of the upper reaches of the river in China, which eventually becomes the Brahmaputra, where it bends sharply before entering India and later flows into Bangladesh. As an upstream state, there are concerns about China’s ability to regulate the timing and quantity of water releases to a certain extent, raising downstream water security concerns.

As seen by an Indian government analysis reuters It is estimated that the project could reduce dry-season flows by up to 85 percent under certain conditions. It is also estimated that the project could enable China to divert 40 billion cubic meters of water, a little more than a third of the annual flow received at a major border point.

Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu has described the project as a “ticking water bomb”. They warned that any reduction in flow or sudden release during filling of the reservoir could endanger communities along the banks of the Siang.

There is no comprehensive treaty between India and China regarding the allocation of Brahmaputra waters. However, they have agreements covering hydrological information and an expert-level mechanism to discuss transboundary rivers.

How is India reacting?

India has accelerated plans for its own hydropower development in Arunachal Pradesh in response to China’s dam building efforts.

according to reutersIndia is pursuing the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP), a proposed 11,000 MW hydropower and flood-control mega-dam on the Siang River in Upper Siang and Siang districts of Arunachal Pradesh.

Led by state-run NHPC, the project will become India’s largest hydropower station when completed. It is expected to generate about 47 billion units of electricity annually and is estimated to cost about ₹1.5 trillion.

What is China’s Brahmaputra Mega Dam Project?

The project, commonly known as the Medog Dam or Yarlung Tsangpo Hydroelectric Project, is being constructed at the great bend of the river in Medog County in Tibet, where the Yarlung Tsangpo takes a sharp U-turn before entering Arunachal Pradesh as the Siang River and eventually becoming the Brahmaputra.

The project, designed around five Cascade Power Stations, is expected to have a combined installed capacity of more than 60 GW. The project is expected to generate more than 300 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity annually, enough to meet the annual electricity needs of more than 300 million people. With a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan (about $167 billion), it is expected to become the world’s largest infrastructure project upon completion.