April may be wetter, colder
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said maximum temperatures in April are likely to be below normal to below normal in many parts of the country, with rainfall expected to reach 112 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
Most weather models also indicate the possible development of El Nino during the Indian southwest monsoon season, which begins after June.
However, the weather department did not say whether El Nino would affect the monsoon or not, saying that detailed estimates would be provided in the annual monsoon forecast in mid-April. “The Indian monsoon does not depend on any single factor but on multiple events,” IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said.
He said models suggest that the Indian Ocean Dipole – another important influence on the monsoon – is expected to turn positive in the latter half of the season.
If April turns wetter and cooler than normal over north and central India, it could affect late-sown Rabi crops.
The IMD also said that the southeast peninsula as well as parts of east, central and northwest India may experience warmer than normal days between April and June. During this period, maximum temperatures are expected to be below normal over most parts of the country, except over most parts of East and Northeast India, East Central India and adjoining peninsular regions, where above normal maximum temperatures are likely.
“During the hot season (April-June), minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, except some areas of Maharashtra and Telangana, where minimum temperatures are expected to be below normal,” the IMD said.
Particularly for April, monthly maximum temperatures are expected to be below normal over many areas, with above normal temperatures predicted over parts of East and Northeast India, parts of Northwest India and southern Peninsular India. Monthly minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of India, except isolated pockets in the southern peninsula, where normal minimum temperatures are expected.
“Below normal rainfall is likely to occur over most parts of the country except Northeast India, where below normal rainfall is expected,” the IMD said.
