India benefits the most from America’s approval

India is poised to become the biggest beneficiary of more than 110 million barrels of Russian oil held in tankers and floating in the high seas – equivalent to about three weeks of India’s consumption needs – after China, Japan and South Korea, the oil’s biggest competitors, expressed objection to Washington’s conditions for going ahead with the purchase, according to industry officials and shipping data. The war in West Asia has entered its 16th day.

Two senior industry officials said Russian supplies could help India meet its requirement for the next 30 days, protect its refineries and retail outlets from any shortage of liquid transportation fuel and offset the need for rationing. business standard. Officials said, “We are fully prepared to supply crude oil till mid-April”, after which India will again have to seek Washington’s approval to purchase additional crude from Russia, India’s biggest oil source. Apart from ensuring that there is no shortage of diesel and petrol in India’s retail outlets, the uninterrupted flow of imported oil maintains the levels of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is partly produced by oil processing in refineries.

Russian oil shipments rose to 2.1 million bpd in the week of March 9 from 1.18 million bpd a week earlier, the most since the week of Nov. 10, 2025, according to industry data firm Kpler.

But the country still faces a shortfall of 750,000 bpd of crude in March compared to February after purchases from West Asian producers were reduced amid the Israel-US-Iran war. In the week of March 2, West Asian producers led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq supplied about 2 million bpd of crude to India, most of which was shipped in February along with 1.2 million bpd of Russian oil. Kpler data shows that in the week to March 9, Russian shipments doubled to 2.1 million bpd, while West Asian supplies declined to 230,000 bpd.

On March 13, the US offered all countries a one-month waiver on the sale, purchase and delivery of crude oil or petroleum products of Russian Federation origin from sanctioned and non-sanctioned producers, loaded onto any vessel, including sanctioned vessels, on or before March 12 and through April 11. A week before this order, the US had allowed India to purchase additional volumes under General License 133, requiring volumes to be loaded by 5 March and discharged by 4 April – with both orders allowing only the purchase of floating cargo and effectively preventing new loadings from Russian ports.

Sumit Ritolia, an analyst at Kpler in Delhi, said India bought a lot of goods after Washington ordered the easing of sanctions. He said about 25 million barrels were available in the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, a short distance from Indian ports, but they were depleting rapidly. India has already reserved 13 million barrels last week, double the amount from the week of February 23.

A senior Indian trader said the premium on Russian barrels could rise now that other Asian buyers have shown interest. India booked Russian oil at a premium of $3-5 over Dated Brent on a delivery basis last week, while in January the medium, sour Ural grade was priced at a discount of $10-12 a barrel.

But despite Washington allowing tankers to transport goods from sanctioned producers, China, Japan and South Korea are exercising caution. Typically, the sanctioned oil is bought by Chinese independent refiners, called teapots, while large state-run Chinese oil companies, with global operations and exposure to the US dollar, avoid Russian cargoes.

Japanese and South Korean refiners are having problems buying Russian oil because of payment concerns. UK-based market information provider Energy Intelligence said banks in Japan and Korea took more than 30 days to process credit lines for Russia and Russia-linked counterparties, which would be longer than the 30 days of clearance waivers granted by the US.

A senior oil ministry official had said at a briefing last week that about 70 per cent of India’s oil was coming through routes outside Hormuz. Kpler data showed that 53 percent of India’s crude oil came through the Strait of Hormuz in February. March volumes through the strait averaged 32 percent in the first half of March amid lower imports.

Russia, Kazakhstan and Brazil cannot offset Gulf oil losses amid the Hormuz insurance crisis, global energy expert Anas Alhaji said in a note. He said weekly crude oil supplies (exports) from Russia, including Kazakh exports to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal and Brazil, have declined in recent months with no end in sight.

Long journey goods are 30-50 days away. Alternative export routes through Fujairah and Yanbu still leave dominant West Asian exports at about one-third of normal levels.

The US has not loaded any cargo to India this month, according to ship-tracking data. Brazil loaded only about 237,000 bpd in March, which takes 45-50 days to reach India, and two Venezuelan cargoes of dirty, acidic mine and a similar Colombian-grade Castilla are headed to India.

US Ambassador to India Sergei Gore said India’s continued imports of Russian crude barrels remains a key factor in maintaining stability amid recent tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. “Global excess capacity is mostly concentrated in this region, so it is absolutely vital that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes,” he said.

Delays in reopening the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices already above $100 a barrel, 40 percent higher than before the war started, even higher this week. “Oil has gathered all the catalysts needed for a perfect storm to take prices to the next level,” Xu said. “Asian refiners are expected to increase purchases of long-haul cargo from the Atlantic Basin as there appears to be no prospect of an early reopening of Strait of Hormuz traffic.”