Lots of questions, less details
by David E Sanger
Eleven weeks ago President Trump said the outcome of an Iran war would be simple.
“There will be no agreement with Iran except unconditional surrender!” He wrote on social media. The White House issued a blunt statement hours later, saying that even if no one in Tehran had formally surrendered, Mr. Trump would announce when the country had essentially given up, or, as Mr. Trump said, yelled “uncle.”
It is too early to tell what Mr. Trump and Iran actually agreed on, or whether they agreed on much. The President wrote in a Truth Social post that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen under some type of memorandum of understanding.
Iran has agreed in principle to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, two US officials with knowledge of the talks said Saturday. But the Iranians have not confirmed this publicly, and much depends on the details of how it will be accomplished. In 2015, without resorting to war, Iran shipped about 97 percent of its stockpile to Russia at the time under its agreement with the Obama administration.
Many other details of the apparent agreement are based on reports from American and Middle Eastern sources, not all of whom have the same understanding of what is in the memorandum, or even what details have been locked down.
Nonetheless, some Iran supporters were condemning the deal on social media even before seeing any details. “The rumored 60-day ceasefire – with no confidence that Iran would ever engage in good faith – would be a disaster,” Senator Roger Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, wrote on Twitter before Mr Trump’s announcement of a near-deal. “Everything achieved by Operation Epic Fury will be in vain!” Mr Trump’s first-term secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, was similarly dismissive on
Mr Trump and his allies have repeatedly said in recent weeks that they would not agree to any deal that does not address nuclear issues. But to decide whether Mr. Trump achieved his objectives, here are some important questions:
Is this agreement solely related to the resumption of trade in the Strait of Hormuz, which opened on February 28, the day Israel and the United States launched their attack? Is the reopening permanent, or does Iran claim it now has the right to control the waterway, even if it agrees to suspend “tolls” on traffic in and out of the strait? Will the United States lift its blockade of ships heading to or from Iranian ports?
Will the United States agree to release any of the $25 billion in frozen Iranian funds that Tehran has demanded be released? (Mr. Trump harshly criticized former President Barack Obama — most recently in the past few weeks — for releasing $1.7 billion as part of a deal that suspended most nuclear activities in 2015.)
Would Iran agree to return nearly 970 pounds of its bomb-grade uranium, or to blend it into a form that would substantially neutralize the threat that it could be used in a weapon? What will happen to about 11 tons of other uranium, enriched at various levels, that the International Atomic Energy Agency says is in Iran’s possession? Mr Trump has repeatedly said Iran should give up all of its nuclear material.
Is Iran allowed to enrich uranium in the future? Does it suspend its enrichment for 20 years, which Mr. Trump told reporters on Air Force One eight days ago would be acceptable?
And what will happen to Iran’s missile arsenal? This is a serious issue for Israel, which is within range of many of Iran’s ballistic missiles. At the beginning of the conflict the Trump administration said Iran would have to give up its missiles or limit their range, but that topic was not discussed publicly until recently.
