The total value of global mergers and acquisitions is on track to reach nearly $4 trillion in 2026. That’s 13% more than in 2025 — only the second-biggest jump at the pandemic-era peak of 2021 — a figure that obscures a market increasingly defined by a handful of blockbuster transactions.

Deal volume data from PwC and LSEG projects an estimated 42,000 transactions for the full year, down 13% from 2025. Megadeals over $5 billion account for about 48% of global deal value – up from 39% in 2025 and just 26% in 2024. Remove them from the equation, and total deal value falls 4% year over year.

Deal activity is likely to be disrupted in specific sectors due to adverse conditions. The US-Israeli military campaign launched against Iran in late February caused what the International Energy Agency called the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, causing energy prices to rise sharply.

Despite the recent US-Iran memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict impacted deal activity in the first half of the year, especially for transactions involving energy, logistics or any risk in the Gulf region.

The geographical picture remains uneven

Despite a decline in deal volume, the US has expanded its dominance, capturing 63% of global deal value in the first half of 2026, up from 54% a year ago, according to Dealogic.

Europe’s value share also increased by 88% ($733.6 billion), boosted by large individual transactions. The Middle East and Africa, overall, saw a 45% increase in deal value ($61.3 billion).

Asia Pacific went in the opposite direction: its share of global deal value fell to 29% – reflecting fewer megadeals and smaller average transaction sizes relative to the US and EMEA.

On the advisory side, Goldman Sachs leads the rankings by a wide margin – $1.161 trillion in deal value across more than 200 transactions so far this year. Among the firm’s key assignments: advising Dominion Energy on its $66.8 billion sale to NextEra Energy, advising Unilever on its planned $65 billion food business merger with McCormick & Company, and acting as lead-left underwriter on the SpaceX IPO.

JPMorgan came in second with $743 billion, up from $557.1 billion a year earlier – a performance the bank attributed to M&A fees that nearly doubled year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Morgan Stanley rounds out the top three with $622.5 billion.

Anthony Noto covers corporate finance and private debt. Contact her at anoto@gfmag.com